Look how fast things have changed...when I worked radio, the
station (King Radio) had a van that we used for promotion. The neighbor kids
would rush to look inside to see the telephone when I drove it home in the
cul-de-sac...
...they thought it amazing at the time in the early 80's.
When cell phones became popular I
remember reading that "We haven't seen anything, yet"!...They
were right...tablets, I-pads where we can get just about everything.
Encyclopedias you can't give away. When I go to the
library hardly anyone is reading...all on their electronic devices....That's
just the way it is now days.
No use to worry...like I said at the beginning "We
haven't seen anything, Yet..."
Most readers will find this a fascinating discussion as to
where we have been and where we are now with future projections. A
highly recommended read.
Interesting…
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all
photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared
and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in
the next 10 years - and most people didn't see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would
never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
So as with all exponential technologies, it was a
disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and mainstream in
only a few short years.
It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the
next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and
are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world,
although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially
better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world,
10 years earlier than expected.
In the US,
young lawyers already don't get jobs.
Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for
more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70%
accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately.
There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only
specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more
accurately than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can
recognize faces better than humans.
In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will
appear in public.
Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted.
You don't want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
location and drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven
distance and can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never
own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less
cars for that.
We can transform former parking space into parks. (1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.)
We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous
driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.
That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might go bankrupt.
Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and
just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do
the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they
are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because
without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change.
Because if you can work while you commute, people will move
further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020.
Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on
batteries.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar
production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now
see the impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than
fossil.
The price for solar will drop so much that all coal
companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have
scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much
clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
There will be companies who will build a medical device
(called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone,
which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 bio-markers
that will identify nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet
will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down
from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need
for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart-phones will have 3D
scanning possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe
at home.
In China,
they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to
go in, ask yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?"
and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is
doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if
there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the
future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of
their field instead of working all day in their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water.
The first petri dish-produced veal is now available and will
be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows.
Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to
the market shortly.
It contains more protein than meat.
It will be labeled as "alternative protein source"
(because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already
tell in which mood you are.
Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when
they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even
become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3
months per year.
Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's
80 years.
The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be
more than one year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way
more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart-phones are already at $10 in
Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone.
That means, everyone has the same access to world class
education.
